Prognostic Value of C-Reactive Protein in SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Simplified Biomarker of COVID-19 Severity in Northern Ethiopia.

Purpose: To evaluate the role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in predicting severe COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted from July 15 to October 28, 2020, at Kuyha COVID-19 isolation and treatment center hospital, Mekelle City, Northern Ethiopia. A total of 670 blood samples were collected serially. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs and CRP concentration was determined using Cobas Integra 400 Plus (Roche). Data were analyzed using STATA version 14. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Overall, COVID-19 patients had significantly elevated CRP at baseline when compared to PCR-negative controls [median 11.1 (IQR: 2.0-127.8) mg/L vs 0.9 (IQR: 0.5-1.9) mg/L; p=0.0004)]. Those with severe COVID-19 clinical presentation had significantly higher median CRP levels compared to those with non-severe cases [166.1 (IQR: 48.6-332.5) mg/L vs 2.4 (IQR: 1.2-7.6) mg/L; p<0.00001)]. Moreover, COVID-19 patients exhibited higher median CRP levels at baseline [58 (IQR: 2.0-127.8) mg/L] that decreased significantly to 2.4 (IQR: 1.4-3.9) mg/L after 40 days after symptom onset (p<0.0001). Performance of CRP levels determined using ROC analysis distinguished severe from non-severe COVID-19 patients, with an AUC value of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.91; p=0.001; 77.4% sensitivity and 89.4% specificity). In multivariable analysis, CRP levels above 30 mg/L were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19 for those who have higher ages and comorbidities (ARR 3.99, 95% CI: 1.35-11.82; p=0.013). Conclusion: CRP was found to be an independent determinant factor for severe COVID-19 patients. Therefore, CRP levels in COVID-19 patients in African settings may provide a simple, prompt, and inexpensive assessment of the severity status at baseline and monitoring of treatment outcomes.

Longitudinal profile of antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 in patients with COVID-19 in a setting from Sub-Saharan Africa: A prospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 plays an important role for epidemiological studies, in aiding the diagnosis of COVID-19, and assess vaccine responses. Little is known on dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 serology in African settings. Here, we aimed to characterize the longitudinal antibody response profile to SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia. METHODS: In this prospective study, a total of 102 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were enrolled. We obtained 802 plasma samples collected serially. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were determined using four lateral flow immune-assays (LFIAs), and an electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. We determined longitudinal antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 as well as seroconversion dynamics. RESULTS: Serological positivity rate ranged between 12%-91%, depending on timing after symptom onset. There was no difference in positivity rate between severe and non-severe COVID-19 cases. The specificity ranged between 90%-97%. Agreement between different assays ranged between 84%-92%. The estimated positive predictive value (PPV) for IgM or IgG in a scenario with seroprevalence at 5% varies from 33% to 58%. Nonetheless, when the population seroprevalence increases to 25% and 50%, there is a corresponding increases in the estimated PPVs. The estimated negative-predictive value (NPV) in a low seroprevalence scenario (5%) is high (>99%). However, the estimated NPV in a high seroprevalence scenario (50%) for IgM or IgG is reduced significantly to 80% to 85%. Overall, 28/102 (27.5%) seroconverted by one or more assays tested, within a median time of 11 (IQR: 9-15) days post symptom onset. The median seroconversion time among symptomatic cases tended to be shorter when compared to asymptomatic patients [9 (IQR: 6-11) vs. 15 (IQR: 13-21) days; p = 0.002]. Overall, seroconversion reached 100% 5.5 weeks after the onset of symptoms. Notably, of the remaining 74 COVID-19 patients included in the cohort, 64 (62.8%) were positive for antibody at the time of enrollment, and 10 (9.8%) patients failed to mount a detectable antibody response by any of the assays tested during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal assessment of antibody response in African COVID-19 patients revealed heterogeneous responses. This underscores the need for a comprehensive evaluation of seroassays before implementation. Factors associated with failure to seroconvert needs further research.

Impacts of COVID-19 on essential health services in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A pre-post study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has proved to have an indirect impact on essential health services in several parts of the world which could lead to increased morbidity and mortality and loss of the gains made in the past decades. There were no synthesized scientific evidences which could show the impact of COVID-19 epidemics/pandemic on essential health services in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 epidemics/pandemic on essential health services provision in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. METHODS: A pre-post study design was used to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on essential health services delivery in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia in the second quarter of 2020 (Post COVID-19) compared to similar quarter in 2019 (Pre COVID-19). The study focuses on five categories; namely; maternal, neonatal and child health care; communicable diseases with a focus on HIV and TB-HIV co-infection; prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV; basic emergency, outpatient, inpatient and blood bank services, non-communicable diseases and road traffic accidents (RTAs). Analysis was done using Stata version 14.0 software package. The effects of COVID-19 epidemics/pandemic were calculated taking the differences between post COVID -19 and pre COVID-19 periods and the levels of service disruptions presented using proportions. Wilcoxon sign rank test was done and a significance level of ≤0.05 was considered as having significant difference among the two quarters. RESULTS: There were significant increase in institutional delivery, delivery by Caesarian Section (CS), still birth, postnatal care within 7 days of delivery, the number of children who received all vaccine doses before 1st birthday, the number of under 5 children screened and had moderate acute malnutrition, the number of under 5 children screened and had severe acute malnutrition and children with SAM admitted for management. However, there were significant decrease in HIV testing and detection along with enrolment to antiretroviral therapy (ART) care, number of patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk ≥ 30% received treatment, RTAs, total units of blood received from national blood transfusion service (NBTS) and regional blood banks, total number of units of blood transfused and emergency referral. There were no significant changes in outpatient visits and admissions. CONCLUSION: Despite commendable achievements in maintaining several of the essential health services, COVID-19 has led to an increase in under nutrition in under five children, decline in HIV detection and care, CVD, cervical cancer screening and blood bank services. Therefore, governments, local and international agencies need to introduce innovative ways to rapidly expand and deliver services in the context of COVID-19. Moreover, lower income countries have to customize comprehensive and coordinated community-based health care approaches, including outreach and campaigns. In addition, countries should ensure that NCDs are incorporated in their national COVID-19 response plans to provide essential health care services to people living with NCDs and HIV or HIV-TB co-infection during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

Effect of co-infection with intestinal parasites on COVID-19 severity: A prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection results in a spectrum of clinical presentations. Evidence from Africa indicates that significantly less COVID-19 patients suffer from serious symptoms than in the industrialized world. We and others previously postulated a partial explanation for this phenomenon, being a different, more activated immune system due to parasite infections. Here, we aimed to test this hypothesis by investigating a potential correlation of co-infection with parasites with COVID-19 severity in an endemic area in Africa. Methods: Ethiopian COVID-19 patients were enrolled and screened for intestinal parasites, between July 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between parasite infection, and COVID-19 severity. Models were adjusted for sex, age, residence, education level, occupation, body mass index, and comorbidities. Findings: 751 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled, of whom 284 (37.8%) had intestinal parasitic infection. Only 27/255 (10.6%) severe COVID-19 patients were co-infected with intestinal parasites, while 257/496 (51.8%) non-severe COVID-19 patients were parasite positive (p<0.0001). Patients co-infected with parasites had lower odds of developing severe COVID-19, with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 0.23 (95% CI 0.17-0.30; p<0.0001) for all parasites, aOR 0.37 ([95% CI 0.26-0.51]; p<0.0001) for protozoa, and aOR 0.26 ([95% CI 0.19-0.35]; p<0.0001) for helminths. When stratified by species, co-infection with Entamoeba spp., Hymenolepis nana, Schistosoma mansoni, and Trichuris trichiura implied lower probability of developing severe COVID-19. There were 11 deaths (1.5%), and all were among patients without parasites (p = 0.009). Interpretation: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19. Funding: European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP) - European Union, and Joep Lange Institute (JLI), The Netherlands. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04473365.